South America in general is stable compared to other regions of the world but like everywhere there are issues. I'm mixed with Chavez on how much power he has and can command. Depending how much he decides to support the FARC both privately and publicly might cause internal problems in Colombia. I think Ecuador and Venezuela are closer now then in past which changes the make up of the region a little as well. Ecuador offered the Chinese the current American bases that will be cleared by 2009; under new Ecuadorian government American leases aren't being renewed. I think this is directly linked to Chavez but I may be wrong but an anti-American feeling is becoming stronger in South America. If China is giving rights to bases in Ecuador one can assume Chinese military equipment isn't far behind. That could be a start of a type of arms race but Ecuador's not in a position to buy 80 semi modern fighters and attack Peru without outside help. Does Ecuador have outside help or plans on getting outside I have no way of knowing. Maybe China will get some K-8 sales in South America and it could be used as a COIN aircraft. Think of all those A-37 getting old and costly to run and find parts for?
Bolivia and Chile - I don't think is a strong crises but I seem to remember issues between the two countries over coastal land. Bolivia's government wants land lost in a former war return or rights over it I'm pretty sure it died down and nothing came of it. Bolivia military wises needs a lot of help and at least on paper would need massive amounts of equipment and training to become a threat in that region. Not much of an arms race unless outside help and support comes to play.
Peru - There economy is picking up some but don't think they have the funding to really begin an arms race Chile's economy is doing better. I guess in time some new equipment will be bought because Peru's Mirage 5's in storage, handful of Mirage 200O-P's flying, and I think I read awhile back 7 or 8 Fulcrums flying. The Mirage 2000s and Fulcrums are flyable but need parts, overhaul, basically funding to make them operational. I think taking out Chile and Brazil that Peru and Argentina might be next for some aircraft upgrades or new purchases in 3 to 5 years. I'm not counting Venezuela because they have the money to do what they want.
Brazil - In time 2 to 3 more years will buy Rafale's because going Russian just doesn't seem possible I think the Americans have a better shot at slipping an aircraft through before Russia does. Brazil to me isn't very American friendly either it's just that Brazil doesn't buy Russian. I think some late model Su-30 Flanker would be a good choice for them or Su-35, either gives them the range Brazil's huge. I think Typhoon's are too costly and Brazil won't go down that route. The same Block-60 Viper deal offered to India with newer AESA radar with production rights etc would serve Brazil just as well. But my money is still on the French if only MICA has another 15 or mile range and cost a little less.
I like this thread please correct me if I had any facts wrong and would be interested in hearing over
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