Chavez making comments again

[tigershark]

Chavez making comments again
I read this little article I found and wanted to get some opinions Venezuela's President Chavez.  At first I was a little taken back by his low level type threats against the US newly formed 4th Fleet but don't know how the information was gathered for the article.  So Venezuela has 24 Su-30MK2V Flankers and a few weapons for this very capable platform, what's next?   I don't think Russia will sell him subs nor advance S-300 SAM systems either.  I think gathering more support and increasing his following or power in South America is where he'll focus next.  I think Ecuador is a testing ground for his way of thinking beginning with getting the Americans out of the country.   The American military base is a goner and as of 2009 American military presents in that country will be a lot less.  The US import's around 200 million barrels of oil daily from Ecuador mainly used in west coast markets but could Ecuador stop selling oil to the US?  I think not just like Venezuela's Chavez rants about the US he still needs out refineries for now at leats to process his heavy crude oil.  I think a US cut off to Ecuador's economy would be two much unless another big power or player step in.  These are some of the things being worked on in Ecuador and wonder could be changes really take place there?   I think South America could be the next Africa in a few years if things are allowed to get out of hand.  Besides oil and natural gas enough to start wars by themselves there are many other important minerals and resources there needed on the worlds market.  Who controls these resources or markets in ten years might just hold a lot of power.   

Venezuela article
Chavez Gets Russian Fighter Jets, Warns U.S. 4th Fleet
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=3657216&c=AIR&s=TOP

What might be in Ecuador's future
http://rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=64777

[WRCKid]

Ecuador is the smallest Oil producer according to OPEC Ecuador has been assigned 520,000 barrels quota not only that the country owes it's energy consumption to oil which is roughly about 80% It is (IMO) inaccurate to compare South America with Africa, there are no dictatorships there are no rogue states, countries are not ruled by warlords (well if you want to include Chavez in that category you can) Ecuador has been a close Allie of the US for many years, with this presidency however the relationships are thinning, Correa is a firm believer of economic soveringty and a close allie with Venezuela and Bolivia so in that sense I guess you could say that it could get ugly. Tensions between Colombia have been deteriorating, Peru just established a free trade agreement with the US other countries may follow. I don't think any other player may step in, since as I mentioned before Correa may not allow it.

[tigershark]

I see what you mean by being inaccurate I didn't really mean in that sense but more in the sense of being untapped.   I think countries like Peru and Bolivia have a lot of untapped resources yet to brought to market.  Bolivia has the second largest natural gas reserves in South America and not the best run government overall.  From what I've been reading Chavez isn't helping Bolivia anymore and gas fields aren't being developed.  I think the last two governments in Bolivia sold out their own countries resources and new gas contracts should be signed with Argentina and Brazil.   Maybe its me but it doesn't seen enough money coming in for the price of natural gas.   I agree there aren't the African type warlords in South America but land grabs for resources and power have been known to happen.

[Webmaster]

China has risen to become the second biggest trade partner of Brazil in five years time, after the US. I think we will see similar developments in other South American countries, I am pretty sure it's happening in Venezuela as well. China comes to do business instead of spreading its ideology/political agenda, unlike the US/Europe and back in the day USSR who do it the other way around. I think China as trading partner is a welcome change from the so-called 'free' trade policies of the US and EU for many Latin countries. It can bring more economical growth to these countries without them having to 'pick sides', tackle internal issues, or having to apply to certain guidelines. It depends on the country's regime though who will benefit...

Chavez is making those comments because he is still angry at the US. He tried to do what's right for the country and not just the elite. He does not care what the US thinks about that. Well you know the oil story, and he was denied access to US military weapons. So now he'll take every opportunity to rub those new capabilities in the US face. But it's also about what the media picks on, unlike other socialist countries, Chavez does not control the media in his country. So the best the world's media can do is pick apart official comments. From what I've seen there's more behind Chavez than is often portrayed. That one doesn't like his foreign policy is understandable and people's freedoms may be somewhat restricted, but to say he is a dictator/warlord is nonsense.

What's next? Next are K-8 trainers from China, Il-78 tankers, Il-76 transports, more helicopters and then a Mirage 5 replacement... looks to be a selection between more Su-30MKV or the Su-35. Both KnAAPO products, so maybe another option will be considered as well, which should bring the MiG-35 on the table... Give me one reason why Russia won't sell them Tor-M/S-300/400, Russia's policy makers have no problem with selling defensive weapons to the 'rogue' states. I think the only concern will be the systems falling into US (eventually) or Chinese hands. Also if you look at Venezuela OrBat, this is far from an arms race when the air force is concerned. They are all required to replace old equipment, and US equipment that can no longer be maintained. Just like most other countries in the world, it's logical to look for better/more capability as well as you go along.

[tigershark]

I don't agree Chavez doesn't control the media in his country I remember seeing something about a TV station or a radio station he closed down, I'll look for it.  He basically made so he couldn't lose the elections as well I'll look for that stuff later today and put it up. 

I do like and agree with your point about American/European ways of doing business and forcing one to take sides, I think that's right on the mark.

Mirage V replacement could go many ways currently it does give Venezuela another anti-ship platform I saw pictures of Venezuelan Mirage V with AS-39 on them.

I know there's no logical reason for not selling S-300 to Venezuela but for some reason I think it will be later then sooner, if at all.

Staying in power after locking horns with all the power that are and going off at the UN etc, he's smarter and more in control then he shows.   

I think China as trading partner is a welcome change from the so-called 'free' trade policies of the US and EU for many Latin countries.

There are some African countries who thought the same and are learning that China just does it differently.