South American Arms Race

[SAS73]

Battle for Rafale

A move by the Brazilian President, Inácio “Lula” da Silva, to apparently announce his choice of the Rafale as the new fighter aircraft for the Brazilian Air Force has triggered one of the most convolute stories in recent defence procurement history. On 7 September, France and Brazil moved to further strengthen and expand their existing bilateral strategic partnership by signing the formal contracts for a series of Brazilian orders for French defence equipment, first announced in December 2008, and moving forward towards additional procurement decisions.

The broad agreement was jointly announced by French President, Nicolas Sarkozy and his Brazilian counterpart during the former’s visit to Brazil. “This is the consolidation of a strategic partnership of two people who have much in common,” said President Lula. “We want to think together, create together, build together and, if possible, sell together.” “The relationship between Brazil and France is not one of supplier and client, but of partners,” stated President Sarkozy. “We want to act together because we share the same values and a same vision on the big international goals,” he added.

The final contracts signed on 7 September cover licence production of 50 Eurocopter EC-725 helicopter (€1.85 billion), and a submarine package comprised of four Scorpène-type boats, construction of a related shipyard and naval base in Itaguai (Rio de Janeiro state), and technical assistance for the Brazilian design and construction of a nuclear-powered submarine (€6.8 billion). These contracts are being largely financed by loans totalling €6.1 billion extended by a pool of French banks (see MILTECH 2/09, page 122 for details).

Further, under the terms of the agreement, the Brazilian MoD will open negotiations with GIE Rafale (Dassault Aviation, Thales and SNECMA) for the planned purchase of 36 Rafale fighters for the Brazilian Air Force (FAB) under the FX-2 programme, plus an option for another 84 aircraft. On the other hand, France will formally join the ongoing Brazilian programme for the development of the KC-390 military transport aircraft and will provide technical support, while the French Air Force will eventually place a first order for ten planes.

Beyond these aircraft deals, the two Presidents extended the bilateral defence partnership into the field of army equipment. A statement of intent has been signed at defence minister’s level under which France would support the Brazilian Army’s modernisation programmes, including digitalisation, the networking of operational units, border monitoring and surveillance, and telecommunications. As a first concrete result of this framework agreement, Brazil’s Agrale and France’s Renault Trucks Defense will cooperate for the production and sale of military transport vehicles.

Technical negotiations on the proposed Rafale deal will now take place on the exact formulation of the French offer, to include the characteristics of the aircraft, the weapons package to accompany it, and the support and maintenance scheme. This will be followed by financial and commercial negotiations, and finally by the negotiation of the contractual clauses. The Rafale deal is valued by French government sources at €4.5-5 billion, plus another billion Euros or so for the armament and other equipment.
The French authorities have taken an engagement towards complete and unobstructed technology transfer that will be used to enable a progressively more comprehensive licence construction programme. President Lula described France's guarantee to share its advanced combat aircraft technology with Brazil as an “exceptional competitive advantage.” If the contract is signed in 2010 as planned, initial deliveries will follow in 2013. France will deliver the first six aircraft from its own assembly line, but the remaining 30 will be locally-assembled by Embraer over a period of six years. Further, France is reported to be even willing to grant Embraer the exclusive right to sell Brazilian-assembled RAFALEs to potential customers in the whole of South America.

The KC-390 purchase in turn has been officially estimated at €500 million, but it is not immediately clear whether this amount will count against Dassault’s offset obligations for the RAFALE contract.

President Lula’s announcement of the RAFALE decision was made before the FAB submitted its final report to the government on the results of the technical evaluation of the three final competitors (the RAFALE, the GRIPEN NG and the F-18E/F SUPER HORNET) and thus well before the National Defence Council formulated its final choice based on both the FAB’s recommendations as well as other considerations. While it was always understood that the final choice would anyway be political, and that it would mostly lie in President Lula’s hands in his dual capacity as the head of State and Government, the surprise announcement thus raises a number of perplexing legal implications in that it would seem to cut across the regular selection process.

It is also understood that President Lula made an abrupt decision based on factors - the guarantee for complete technology transfer even including the right for further export sales, and the promise to make the aircraft available at a comparable price as paid by the French Air Force - that were not included in GIE Rafale’s bid, and were rather put forward by President Sarkozy in an handwritten note passed to President Lula during the official banquet. The final result has been a veritable political storm.

On 8 September (i.e., one day after the official announcement) the Defence Minister, Nelson A. Jobim took the truly extraordinary step of publishing a signed statement on the Defence Ministry’s web site, to the effect that “as regards this new development [the President’s announcement], the selection process of the FX-2 programme, led by Air Force Command, has not yet been completed, and will continue with negotiations with the three participants, which will be expanded and could eventually lead to redefined offers.” On 9 September, both Boeing and Saab issued statements to the effect that they have not been officially informed of the selection process having been curtailed, and thus regard themselves as still being very much in the running. On 10 September, President Lula reminded everybody as to who is in charge: “The Air Force has the technological knowhow to make the evaluation, and it will do so. But the decision is political and strategic, and it’s up to the President of the Republic and no one else.”

By 11 September a sort of a compromise political agreement appears having been reached. The selection process is to continue, however in the sense that GIE Rafale has until 21 September to formalise before the Brazilian Air Force a commercial proposition for the Rafale consistent with the parameters set by President Sarkozy, while the other two contenders will also have the opportunity to amend their offers by that date to try and match France’s. “If someone wants to make a better offer [than France], let them do it,” said President Lula. “That’s the way negotiations work.” The Air Force Command will use these revised bids to formulate its evaluation and recommendations that would be submitted to the National Defence Council by the end of October to enable a final choice by the President.

The Defence Minister also went to considerable lengths to downplay any notion of a power struggle between the President and him. “The important thing is that there has been a political decision by the President to expand the strategic alliance with France. ... for this policy decision to come into effect, it depends on Dassault and also the other bidders, because there has to be a comparative evaluation,” he said.

Barring last-minute monumental surprises, it is thus to be expected that the RAFALE choice will eventually be confirmed - albeit in a form, that would restore respect for the respective responsibilities and authority of the Air Force Command and National Defence Council. National security regulations will almost certainly prevent Boeing from going that far on the technology transfer road, while Saab is not legally in a position to offer Brazil access to the technologies for the GRIPEN NG’s American engine or the British/Italian radar.

[SAS73]

US Raises Alarm Over Venezuela-Russia Arms Deals

The US has voiced concern that the recent arms sale between Russia and Venezuela could fuel a Latin American arms race.

On Sunday, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced that the South American country, a outspoken critic of the US, will soon take delivery of the first batch of Russian short-range missiles with a range of approximately 300km.

President Chavez also announced that the country had obtained a $2.2bn loan from Russia for the purchases, which are likely to include a deal to acquire 100 Russian T-72 and T-90 main battle tanks (MBT) valued at about $500m.

A spokesperson for the US State Department Ian Kelly said that the US has concerns in general about Venezuela's desire to increase its arms build-up, which we think poses a serious challenge to stability in the Western Hemisphere.

"What they are looking to purchase and what they are purchasing outpaces all other countries in South America. We are concerned about an arms race in the region," Kelly said.

Hugo Chavez has repeatedly stressed that his country has the right to protect its national security as well as the country's massive oil and gas reserves.

The South American country has spent over $4bn on Russian weapons in recent years, including 24 Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets, helicopters and 100,000 AK assault rifles.

http://www.army-technology.com/news/news64449.html

[SAS73]

Brazil chooses Rafale Fighter

PARIS (AFP) - Talks between Brazil and France on a major deal to buy Rafale combat jets are at a "very advanced" stage and headed toward agreement, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Sunday.
Made by France's Dassault Systems, the Rafale fighter is in competition with the Swedish-made Gripen and Boeing's F/A-18 Super Hornet for a contract worth four billion dollars (2.8 billion euros) to supply Brazil with 36 fighter aircraft.
Lula told RFI radio and TV5Monde that negotiations were showing progress, as French President Nicolas Sarkozy traveled to Brasilia for a two-day state visit starting Monday.
"What I can say is that our discussions are at a very advanced stages and I think that we will reach a good understanding with France," said the Brazilian president.
"The talks with President Sarkozy are progressing very rapidly. We are on the right course, the right path. We have a relationship of trust," he added.
If France's Dassault does sell its Rafales to Brazil, it would be the first time the jets have been sold abroad.
Analysts said France's offer to give Brazil the technology behind the multi-role combat aircraft as part of the sale of 36 planes could give it the edge over the rival bids from the United States and Sweden.
France is also holding talks with the United Arab Emirates for the sale of 60 Rafale fighters jets in a bigger deal that could be worth between six and eight billion euros.

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/print/s/06092009/24/f-afp-brazil-france-advanced-talks-fighter-jet-deal-lula.html

This will conclude the FX-2 Program.
Rafale wins over the Super Hornet and the Grippen NG.

[SAS73]

Brazil and France sign important military agreement

Brazilian President Luiz Lula da Silva and his French counterpart, Nicolas Sarkozy, formalized this morning the largest defense agreement in Brazilian history, larger than the agreement subscribed with Colombia. Both countries will refine their diplomatic positions to reform the UN Security Council.




According to newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo this is the “largest and most significant military agreement in recent history” by which Brazil will buy “initially 8,500 million euros in submarines and helicopters” to be paid in the next 20 years.

The agreement will be signed on the second day of official visit by French President Nicolas Sarkozy to Brazil, and is part of the strategic partnership that both countries agreed last December.

The deal includes the purchase by Brazil of four Scorpene conventional submarines, the manufacturing of the hull of the first nuclear powered submarine to be built in Brazil, and the construction of a naval base and shipyard in Rio de Janeiro.

According to specialist in military affairs Roberto Godoy this program will change the military equation in Latin America.

“Probably this is the beginning, nobody comments on it because it can bring diplomatic consequences but it will give the country the largest naval firepower in Latin America,” said Godoy.

“The idea is to have a defensive firepower”, not offensive, higher than neighboring countries, he added.

Deputy Jose Genoino, from Workers Party (PT), a group founded by Lula da Silva, is emphatic in stating that the retrofitting of Brazil is not a threat to South American countries.


http://momento24.com/en/2009/09/06/brazil-and-france-sign-important-military-agreement/

[Webmaster]

I don't know if this is already mentioned somewhere in all these pieces.

Regarding the Venezuela "boasting arms, buying spree", they've actually cut their K-8 order back to just 8 iirc. Might be because of the effect the crisis had on oil income, or actually some unannounced wish to go for something more advanced (Yak-130) rather sooner than later, which with MAKS and the good Russia-Venezuela relations seems more than plausible and may eventually be bought together with M2K replacements (probably Su-35), which have now btw been retired.

[SAS73]

Ecuador evaluates grant Mirage fighter-50, by President Hugo Chávez

Defense Minister Javier Ponce agreed that their government is advancing in talks with Venezuela to explore the possibility of accepting the fleet of Mirage-50, while acknowledging that "nothing is resolved '.

The official's statements were made by the daily "El Universo", who assured him that the implements can be "useful in the recovery of the Mirage fleet. "Everything that refers to this donation is in conversation. The official said.

"Accepting the donation will depend on President Rafael Correa, said the daily, which the government considers opposing trend.

In the inventory of the Venezuelan Air Force (FAV) include a 12 aircraft Mirage-50, but according to the newspaper "is not yet known whether they will be donated in full" to Ecuador, which has 18 Mirage F1, and several Kfir and Jaguar combat fighter jets.

Ecuador is in the process of modernization of its armed forces to strengthen control on the border with Colombia, which in March 2008 launched a military attack against a clandestine camp of FARC guerrillas in its territory, which led to the breakdown of diplomatic relations.

QUITO, Ecuador (EFE-AFP)

http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/ecuador-evalua-donacion-de-aviones-de-combate-mirage-50-de-parte-del-presidente-hugo-chavez-_6177307-1

[Webmaster]

14 Chilean Mirage 50 Panteras have also been sold to Ecuador, contract was signed in June. So, the ex-Venezuelan ones will probably be used for spares, serving both the Mirage F1 and the coming Panteras.

PS: I think all Ecuador's Jaguars were grounded/in storage... and set to retire from "service".

Bit of related Ecuador news: contract pending for four Xian MA60 transports to replace the five HS.748.

Some other remarkable news (imho) for other latin countries:

Argentina - FAA has five AT-27 Tucanos on loan from Brazil until Jan 2010, as its own Tucanos are not airworthy.

Uruguay - Buying 4 S-3B Vikings from USN surplus for its Navy. Two of them will be dedicated to SAR, MP and anti-narc by contract, leaving the other two for ASW duties.

[SAS73]

14 Chilean Mirage 50 Panteras have also been sold to Ecuador, contract was signed in June. So, the ex-Venezuelan ones will probably be used for spares, serving both the Mirage F1 and the coming Panteras.

PS: I think all Ecuador's Jaguars were grounded/in storage... and set to retire from "service".

Bit of related Ecuador news: contract pending for four Xian MA60 transports to replace the five HS.748.

Some other remarkable news (imho) for other latin countries:

Argentina - FAA has five AT-27 Tucanos on loan from Brazil until Jan 2010, as its own Tucanos are not airworthy.

Uruguay - Buying 4 S-3B Vikings from USN surplus for its Navy. Two of them will be dedicated to SAR, MP and anti-narc by contract, leaving the other two for ASW duties.

Can u confirm the info regarding the Mirage Panteras for Ecuador?
And it is increible that the US and the USN gave up 4 S-3 Vikings, Colombia have been looking to obtain A Grumman E-2 Hawkeye plataform and not answer yet from the US. may be a  Embraer ERJ 145 AEW&C, originally known as RJ-145SA or R-99 A, is an affordable Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft developed in cooperation by Embraer, airborne platform, and Ericsson Microwave (now Saab Microwave), Erieye surveillance radar system. This could be and awesome radar and inteligence plataform for the Colombian Air Force.

[SAS73]

Chavez is looking to Arm his Military Forces to the Teeth

With sarcasm that characterizes it, Hugo Chávez said he would do a few weeks ago their "annual tour through the axis of evil". Actually began its journey in Libya, where Muammar Gaddafi and Chávez decorated him spared no praise for the controversial African leader. He strengthened ties with Algeria, Syria and Belarus. We have time to stroll down the catwalks of the Venice festival, become a movie star, thanks to the documentary South of the border, from Oliver Stone.

But the popular leader who exalts Hollywood, did not seem so nice when it announced several governments in Russia, days after, which would make a new purchase of weapons by 2,200 million dollars (in addition to the 4,400 three years ago), this instead of 92 tanks, 300 armored vehicles and an unspecified number of anti-aircraft missiles and long-range rocket. Not when in a clear challenge to the International Criminal Court invited the Sudanese President Omar al Bashir, accused of war crimes, to come to Isla Margarita to a summit to be held this month. Nor soothed his meeting with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who built a villa with nuclear "commercial" or that he had told the daily Le Figaro that "Iran has the right to develop nuclear energy as do France, many countries and why not, Venezuela. Declaration that could go against the UN resolutions on Iran.

Chavez has always based his government's discourse on the rhetoric of a supposed U.S. invasion of its territory via Colombia. And, indeed, few people, including the U.S. government took it seriously. They saw it more as a clever anti-imperialist speech to captivate the masses in Venezuela than a calculated strategy that may endanger the stability of the region, starting with Colombia.

But things are starting to change. "We do not want war, but we must be prepared to hate it. We are at number one on the list. Venezuela. We are the first target of the rule, using Colombia and the bases of Aruba and Curacao. We are surrounded," Chavez said recently in his television program.

Statements like this cause for concern, especially because the Venezuelan president not only has the long tongue to speak but is willing to carry out what he says. Many times threatened to reduce imports of Colombia, and in recent months have shown a clear block to employers on this side of the border. Although two years ago said he would mobilize 10 battalions to the border and no one moved, the tanks that it is acquiring a new dimension to these threats. And his jokes about the 'axis of evil' have gone on to become millionaires business with Iran, including a bank, several factories, and a daily flight between Caracas and Tehran.

Nor was support wagon only that, at least many of their men close, have given the FARC. The Colombian government has evidence that a number of years and even today, prominent people of Chavez has served as a bridge for the guerrilla acquire weapons, ammunition, money and other military resources, such as rocket launchers.

But while Chavez is preparing to install its missile launchers and antiaircraft platforms "in the mountains, plains, coasts, underground, even," he said, convinced that an attack will come from across the border, Colombia has a military aircraft designed for internal war, dedicated to fight the armed groups and drug trafficking. Colombia has an armed force 10 times more numerous than those of Venezuela, has five times more helicopters, combat aircraft, but its not given on the heels of the Chavez, has no tanks, no missiles, no anti-aircraft systems.

translation by google
full article
link
http://www.semana.com/edicion-impresa/Seccion/92.aspx

[SAS73]

Ecuador recently acquire 6 MIRAGE 50  from venezuela  and 12 CHEETAH C and D  from South Africa

[Webmaster]

Can u confirm the info regarding the Mirage Panteras for Ecuador?

AFM says a contract was signed. And "According to sources in Santiago involved in the deal, only ten of the Panteras will enter FAE service, while the remaining four will be cannalised for spares. Deliveries are expected to commence very shortly."

http://www.enfoque-estrategico.com/noticias/breves_30julio09.htm
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/Cheetahs-and-Mirage-50s-for-Ecudaor-05832/

How in the world do you expect me to confirm that? How much confirming is actually going on in the media anyway? Surely you don't expect me to confirm their stuff...

And it is increible that the US and the USN gave up 4 S-3 Vikings, Colombia have been looking to obtain A Grumman E-2 Hawkeye plataform and not answer yet from the US. may be a  Embraer ERJ 145 AEW&C, originally known as RJ-145SA or R-99 A, is an affordable Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft developed in cooperation by Embraer, airborne platform, and Ericsson Microwave (now Saab Microwave), Erieye surveillance radar system. This could be and awesome radar and inteligence plataform for the Colombian Air Force.

Gave up? They are retiring them to the desert. I don't think an ASW/MP capability is comparible to an AWACS capability. I think it's credible, as Uruguay had S-2 Trackers in the past, and two of them will be used for anti-narcotics operations.

About the E-2 Hawkeye for Colombia. Two things come to mind. This arms race with Venezuela for one, giving Colombia an AWACS capability will move Venezuela into getting some sort of AEW platform too, which of course the US won't like. Secondly, as the US heads towards setting up bases in Colombia, and probably provide airborne warning assets themselves in addition to the USN coverage, the US may see little need for Colombia to spend on such a capability.

[SAS73]

For more info regarding Ecuador, they recently acquire 6 MIRAGE 50 from venezuela and 12 CHEETAH C and D from South Africa. Some sources said that the deal with South Africa was around $40 Millions US Dollars. Increible but true
 
On the other hand the AWACS issue for Colombia is that probably the US will mantain an AWAC plataform on the Palanquero Air base in Colombia. So there is no justification to buy  that kind of Plataform for the Colombian Air Force. But I think that the Embraer ERJ 145 AEW&C, cant be desistimated. The Embraer people have been working together along side with the Ericsson people to sell this AWAC system to Colombia. They have been in Colombia and in military fairs several times, and the FAC show interest to buy the system. Is it true that this buy can trigger the same buy for Venezuela, but this system mainly will work for anti-drug missions.