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Author Topic: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!  (Read 12845 times)

Offline shawn a

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Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #12 on: April 22, 2009, 09:15:10 AM »
A  massive aerial assault?
I'd prefer to see "surgery"

Offline Eldorado82

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Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #13 on: April 22, 2009, 04:49:42 PM »
A  massive aerial assault?
I'd prefer to see "surgery"

one thing i can promiss you is that you won't see any "surgery" here. like in the Opera in 1981
no surgery hits just getting the ground flat:) >:D
Remembering Steven "TigerShark" Zeluff

Offline Viggen

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Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2009, 05:23:30 PM »
Im very sure the "muslims" will retaliate with more frequent suicidebombings if these plans were carried out. It will also lead to a full scale war between the Israel state and the surrounding muslims countries. They will definatly unite into a stronger force so they can attack Israel. And im not so sure the US or Nato would back Israel up in this case, atleast not openly.

The muslim fanatics is just waiting for something like this to occur. Then they can prove their point of Israels unprovoced attack with civilian casualties. You will see dead children in the news and the regular demonstrations. Irans president will call the other muslim countries for aid to help them destroy the evil Israel. I belive that they would actually answer his call. How that confrontation would end, i have no answer to.

However this is all speculation from my side, how i think this scenario would play out.
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Offline WRCKid

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Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #15 on: April 22, 2009, 05:45:01 PM »
Im very sure the "muslims" will retaliate with more frequent suicidebombings if these plans were carried out. It will also lead to a full scale war between the Israel state and the surrounding muslims countries. They will definatly unite into a stronger force so they can attack Israel. And im not so sure the US or Nato would back Israel up in this case, atleast not openly.

The muslim fanatics is just waiting for something like this to occur. Then they can prove their point of Israels unprovoced attack with civilian casualties. You will see dead children in the news and the regular demonstrations. Irans president will call the other muslim countries for aid to help them destroy the evil Israel. I belive that they would actually answer his call. How that confrontation would end, i have no answer to.

However this is all speculation from my side, how i think this scenario would play out.

Thank you!!!! finally someone is seeing it from my perspective. Of course again let me just say, this is all one of the many scenarios that could happen.

Offline tigershark

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Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2009, 07:12:15 PM »
Hey Viggen buddy how are you?

Its not 1967 or 1973 anymore and don't think the Muslims are united as you think.  In the Gulf region nobody wants Iran to have such power they don't openly support Israel don't get me wrong but Iran having nukes one day is a nightmare.  Iran would be able to bully them which means messing with the oil money and that's a no, no. 

Hi WRCKid
I can see you point and totally don't want this to grow into a long drawn fight involving many countries but I can't see many countries actually taking part in real fighting and taking Iran's side.  Iran's biggest supporter is Syria which at times clashes with Iran's government but overall are friendly toward each other.  Syria is like Iran are one of the biggest supporter for the outside fighters in Iraq killing Americans and others daily, Syria will not step toward Israel period.  There trying hard to survive in the "Iran friendly" world on one side and trying to become a little more US friendly at the same time.  I think Syria has got a free ride for too many years and are one of the worlds most used terrorist hubs but don't seem to get blamed for it, I never understood that.   Attacking Syria would have made a lot more sense then Iraq but that's another story. 

To both WRCKid & Viggen
What country's do you think would directly support Iran?  Take in effect how US support in trade, finance, and arms, etc, has with any country you come with.  For example Egypt has treaties with both Israel and the US and depends mainly on the US for weapons and aide, they are not going to "all the sudden" jump onto Iran's side.   Besides Colombia, Egypt receives the second largest American aid package out there and aren't going to chance that for a nuclear Iran. 

Offline Eldorado82

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Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2009, 07:33:05 PM »
let me bite folks: are we gonna beat the s**t out of them or not?!:)   :police:
Remembering Steven "TigerShark" Zeluff

Offline tigershark

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Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2009, 07:46:20 PM »
Hi Eldorado82
I say attack I think there rockets & missiles are overrated and just don't want them one day to have control over future n-weapons period.

Offline Viggen

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Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #19 on: April 23, 2009, 12:40:57 AM »
Hey Viggen buddy how are you?

To both WRCKid & Viggen
What country's do you think would directly support Iran?  Take in effect how US support in trade, finance, and arms, etc, has with any country you come with.  For example Egypt has treaties with both Israel and the US and depends mainly on the US for weapons and aide, they are not going to "all the sudden" jump onto Iran's side.   Besides Colombia, Egypt receives the second largest American aid package out there and aren't going to chance that for a nuclear Iran. 


Im fine, thanks for asking. Though im off to the hospital with the whole family on friday for a full day of experiments and talks with doctors. LOL  :D

The countries i was thinking of are (in no particular order) : Libya, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Pakistan. Also i would like to remind everyone, that this would not be any "conventional" war like in Iraq. These people have targets that are much closer then the ones on US soil. If there is a will, then there is always a way. Unless nukes or any bio or chem weapons are used, then it will be a long war. High rate of casualties among civilians on both sides. Sure the IAF would kick ass and manage their share. But its the war on the ground that will cause problems for Israel. One thing that i have learned is that war never goes as planned.
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Offline tigershark

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Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #20 on: April 23, 2009, 03:11:55 AM »
Interesting view but in my opinion I don't think it would go down that way. 
Libya - Just getting accepted back into the western world, Libya not religious enough for Iran and hasen't been in 30 years.  So no strong ties there.
Iraq - Hated enemies both shared an almost 8 year year long war.  Iraq is will aware that outside people and weapons are coming from Iran and messing up their country.
Syria - A little Iran and would support but dare not do anything there not doing already
Lebanon - Not a real country and already does there part on making sure there will never be peace with Israel.  What could they do launch more rockets, Israel would come down harder then they have ever before.
Pakistan - Everybody tells me the two don't like each other.   India and Iran trade together and both support the real government in A-stan which pisses off Pakistan, big time.   I don't believe that myself 100% I still think it will surface one day some connection with Iran, Pakistan, and the bad guys in A-stan, but that's just me. 
I think Sudan would support Iran's cause but can do little military wise.  Other governments would voice there displeasure mainly China.
There already UN trade bans on Iran already so its not like there good guys or anything. 

There usually three sides to most topics and it's interesting hearing your on this.  I sense you want peace for the West Bank, Gaza, but realize that Iran might be almost the biggest reason why in more then thirty years there isn't.  This is a complex issues but if one forum can disgust this without fights breaking out it's Milavia.  We tend to talk to each other and not down to each other wish the Middle East could do that. (thumbs up)

Countries like UAE and Kuwait will be very happy and I'm sure Turkey wouldn't mind either. 

Offline Viggen

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Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #21 on: April 23, 2009, 04:32:05 AM »
Well, im not saying that im right or wrong, or that any other scenarior presented here is wrong.  :)

Im just thinking of the history between these nations and the longtime growing hate for Israel. (Which is not without complete blame). But i also understand the fear from Israels pov if Iran get their hands on nukes.
I belive Iran is crazy enough to make a first pre emptive strike against the Israeli state with nukes. The hate is that strong.

Anyway, my point is that many fanatics from all of these countries that i mentioned, would answer the call for Jihad against Israel just as they did in Afghanistan and Iraq against the US and NATO forces. Israel will have to deal with the same problems as US-troops do in Iraq at the moment, but on a larger scale. They would get more determined if they know they are backed by a country that harbours nuclear capacity and offers a sanctuary for so called "freedom fighters".
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Offline shawn a

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Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #22 on: April 23, 2009, 09:59:45 AM »
Good point, Viggen.
Surreptitious Surgery, then.
A few "Industrial Accidents" perhaps.
Or, does Israel once again need to send the message-"We're here, and we intend to stay", via overt action?
Iran should cool it, the rhetoric they spout is reminiscent of the cold war male bovine feces I grew up with.
Shawn A.

Offline RecceJet

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Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #23 on: April 23, 2009, 12:00:36 PM »
Anyway, my point is that many fanatics from all of these countries that i mentioned, would answer the call for Jihad against Israel just as they did in Afghanistan and Iraq against the US and NATO forces. Israel will have to deal with the same problems as US-troops do in Iraq at the moment, but on a larger scale. They would get more determined if they know they are backed by a country that harbours nuclear capacity and offers a sanctuary for so called "freedom fighters".

The difference between the current US operations (Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom) and any future Israeli operation against Iran is that the US has boots on the ground. And a very large footprint at that! The US has a vast logistics and support system that can ensure that the US presence in Iraq, Afghanistan and surrounding nations remains at a level where operations can persist.

Israel does not have this ability. The IDF (surface elements) is geared for defensive wars and pre-emptive, short range punches. Israel cannot support boots on the ground in a place as far away as Iran, so the issue of fighting an insurgency like the US is doing in both OIF and OEF will not exist. Besides, the last time Israel was up in Lebanon they got given a bloody nose and caught unprepared by holding onto their historic military successes. Hezbollah has made some technological advances with their surface to surface missiles and UAV capability.

Surgical strikes will only postpone the inevitable. I don't believe that kinetic strikes alone will ensure that Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons. Unless the strikes are sustained over a year or longer there will be no way of enforcing a stop to Iran's ambitions. Israel cannot sustain this, nor is it feasible from a political or tactical stand-point.

Politically, the US cannot permit a sustained Israel air dominance over Iran, especially once collateral damage reports reach the media. The worldwide public outrage and political backlash will be bigger than anything the US is prepared to handle.

Tactically, after the first strike, let alone after a day worth of aerial strikes, the element of surprise will be lost. Any successive sorties will have a risk that will increase exponentially over time.

Israel will need a different approach, or at least augment a strike with a more persistent form of deterrence. Sabotage may be one option, but something that can be countered after the first few events. Political pressure on countries assisting Iran probably won't work. Targeted assassinations until a more favourable government takes over? Maybe extremely high altitude UAVs with JDAMs that are out of the reach of Iranian SAMs will provide Israel the ideal aerial strike persistence over a longer term.

In the event of a strike I believe Iran will attempt to fight back by proxy, as it has done in the past. Hezbollah and perhaps even the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. But this will be difficult unless Israel moves into foreign territory. I doubt Iran or any asymmetrical force fighting on Iran's behalf will be able to fight its way into Israel; that is the one thing Israel trains for more than anything. Just looking at their MBT, the Merkava; it is designed to fight defensive wars and ensure crew survivability.

The other options is artillery and rockets, similar to what Iraq did in the early 90s. But to do this, Iran would need to put their artillery units on alert and any indication that shows these units are going active will force the US to destroy them. Having Iraq between Israel and Iran may well work in Israel's favour.

« Last Edit: April 23, 2009, 12:09:54 PM by RecceJet »

 



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