MILAVIA Forum - Military Aviation Discussion Forum

Author Topic: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!  (Read 13333 times)

Offline Webmaster

  • MILAVIA Webmaster
  • Administrator
  • General of Flight
  • *******
  • Posts: 2843
  • Country: nl
Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #24 on: April 23, 2009, 12:12:47 PM »
=> This post has been written before RecceJet's last reply. Sorry.

I can't agree with those of you promoting this so much. Although the typical 1980s Middle-East scenario won't happen, it will hurt almost everyone of those countries. Iraq's fragile stability will be lost, Lebanon's government will be overthrown, Egypt's government will be reelected and those parties against Israel will be in power. Israel will face a huge threat from inside. Syria / Iran will supply anything to Hamas. But in the end, it will be Iranian people who don't hate the US and don't care about Israel and just want some prosperity to get on with their lives, that will suffer the most from any "justified" action their government will take.

I agree with Shawn A that there are other options. You're saying sabotage of the nuclear program / facilities. Although difficult and risky, I'd say I would prefer that over any kind of strike. Then they'll still blame Israel and the US of course, hopefully without proof, the rest of the world will let it pass. Still, it will feed extremists.

I'd say no Israel has no need to send any message this time, with Lebanon and Gaza fresh in everyone's mind. Israel should be careful now, the EU and Arab liga won't let them get away with it a third time in such a short period, not saying they'll take direct military action. Even if it is just trade embargos, this might hurt Israel badly.

The US administration won't be happy either, of course that won't mean anything.

Not sure what Iran will do, maybe it won't respond in a military sense at all, but let the extremists take care of it.

Quote
Iran should cool it, the rhetoric they spout is reminiscent of the cold war male bovine feces I grew up with.

Right, and to prevent it going 'hot', Israel should not pre-empt anything and let them talk and mess around with their rockets. Iran will use their nuclear weapon as deterrent and as political bargaining tool, like N.Korea, if it ever does succeed. The president may be a hot shot, but the real people calling the shots there aren't and they know it will put their country back into the stoneage if they try something. But any pre-emptive move from Israel, might justify for them to let the president do whatever he wants in response.
  • Interests: Su-15, Su-27, Tu-22, Tornado, RNLAF
Niels Hillebrand
MILAVIA Webmaster

Offline RecceJet

  • Global Moderator
  • Fighter Ace
  • *******
  • Posts: 404
  • Country: au
Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #25 on: April 23, 2009, 01:44:18 PM »
I agree with the Webmaster here.

In my last response I was just speculating on the actions and reactions between Israel and Iran in the event of a strike, but as with any conflict (although in the Middle East in particular when Israel is involved) there are direct effects on the neighbouring countries. I would also recommend for cooler heads to prevail and hope that Israel exercises restraint.

The US called for Israel's restraint in the first US Gulf War, when Hussein launched SS-1 Scud missiles. Hussein knew that if Israel were to retaliate and join the conflict the Coalition Forces that supported the US operation in Iraq would disintegrate. Arab and Muslim countries may bicker amongst themselves, but when the Jewish nation joins a conflict against an Arab country, the entire Muslim world will rally in support.

Countries such as Egypt and Jordan have relatively friendly relations with Israel and the US. The balance of power in these two countries - as an example - will rapidly shift after military action against Iran by Israel. If their respective governments want to stay in power they must bow to the will of the masses and join forces with their fellow Muslim countries. The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has a minority government in a majority Palestinian country. The late King Hussein of Jordan has in the past struggled to stay in control when an insurgency against Israel based itself in his country and threatened to cause a major Palestinian uprising.

There are many other countries in the region on friendly terms with the US and the western world. Even if Israel retaliates after a strike by Iran, the region could collapse into a mess. I just hope that the MIM-104 Patriot and the Israeli Arrow intercepting missiles are up to the task!

Offline tigershark

  • News Editor
  • General of Flight
  • *******
  • Posts: 2025
Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #26 on: April 23, 2009, 07:42:42 PM »
Hey guys
I can't say I agree with Webmasters or RecceJet last post, but that's what makes the world and forums so special.

Quote
RecceJet 
Even if Israel retaliates after a strike by Iran, the region could collapse into a mess.
Hi RecceJet
What happens if that first strike by Iran is a nuclear there might not be an Israel left?  Do the people in Israel and if you think of it the surrounding country's would be effective if some sort of bomb was exploded, have to live in fear because of Iran?  There President has made it clear Israel should be wiped from the map.  I don't see Iran retracing any of these remarks and trying to lessen the situation, in fact there President goes on anti-Israeli tours trying to gain support and peaching his points.  Not exactly happy times if you live in Israel and this nut job is building nuclear reactors that can produce the needed  I'll say "things" for making weapons?  All it takes in some 2nd or 3rd party group to carry out the evil deed and Iran's governments makes a press release saying "The government of Iran had nothing to do with the attack on Israel" at that point its too late. 

Hi Webmaster
Quote
But in the end, it will be Iranian people who don't hate the US and don't care about Israel and just want some prosperity to get on with their lives, that will suffer the most from any "justified" action their government will take.
The Iranian people don't hate the US what?  There basically taught that webmaster not much you could say or do to get around that, they don't how the same kinds of schools and teachers that they do in Europe.  That type of play fair, be nice, don't hate, etc, gets eaten up by them and used against us in general in the west.   They don't care about Israel?  Wow is all I can say.   Remember we the US supported the Shah and they overthrew the country, the new powers started teaching hate Americans and Jews right about that time.  They killed thousands of Iranians who didn't believe or who were slow to change over to the new rules?  Not a happy bunch overall and it's these happy hater's who control things. 

Quote
Iran will use their nuclear weapon as deterrent and as political bargaining tool, like N.Korea, if it ever does succeed.
Are you sure it will go like that?  It could be a cargo ship in some harbor with a nasty dirty (blank) on it, I don't want these crazies to have that chance.  I don't think it will be deterrent as much as there bully other smaller countries around in the Gulf region, making them top dog in a sense. 

I look at this way say some crazy guy threaten you, family, etc and you see him buying a gun at a gun store (Russia in this case).  What are you going to do?  You know this guy has killed before, you know guns he bought have been given to others have killed.  Are you going to sit back and do nothing while this crazy guy who said "I'll wipe your whole family out" and you know he buying a gun?  You can see through his window and see him putting the gun together.  To me this is where Israel stands and Iran does nothing to ease this at all in fact makes it worse when ever the shit head speaks. 

Offline alyster

  • Hero of Flight
  • ******
  • Posts: 523
  • Country: ee
Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #27 on: April 23, 2009, 10:22:36 PM »
Quote
Are you sure it will go like that?  It could be a cargo ship in some harbor with a nasty dirty (blank) on it, I don't want these crazies to have that chance.  I don't think it will be deterrent as much as there bully other smaller countries around in the Gulf region, making them top dog in a sense. 


Or you can smash Iran so bad that it's in the orbit around the planet and Pakistan will crash down under islamic revolution, they get the nukes from there and it goes KABOOM. There's millions of chances how it could happen. However lets not forget that one of the most agressive states in the region are not Iran and Syria but US and Israel, who both have the A bomb and one has used it already, TWICE just to see how the thing works.

If anything Iran could want an A-bomb for protection. Lets face it, ever since the 1979 world has tried to eliminate Irani regime. The big and bad Saddam Husein was supplied by US, Europe AND Soviet Union* in war against Iran, just to eliminate the Iranian regime. Then Soviets moved into Afganistan, who were closly followed by the yanks, after which Iraq was attacked. IDF takes annual trips to Lebanon. I wouldn't call that a friendly enivroment for Iran.

*And that is highly illogical since we're deep in the Cold war.

Futhermore currently we are fighting Taliban in Afganistan. It's a sunni organisation. I'd never for one second buy it that a shia state would risk its existance so a sunni organisation could triumph. It only leaves us with Hezbollah and Israel, but luckily christians, jews and muslems have one thing in common - we're all crazy for same holy places, specially Jerusalem. Also lucky that our crushades to the city are over.


Apart of that nonsense NATO simply doesnt have the strenght to attack Iran. Econimic crises, the army is not so popular in the US anymore, European bigger states just don't feel like it and Russia is just sparking mad about everything NATO does so they sell weapons here and there like crazy. And I hardly doubt IDF can do anything but few air strikes with out and major support.

Webmaster Edit: Removed F-words
« Last Edit: April 24, 2009, 03:01:15 PM by Webmaster »
Si Hoc Legere Scis Nimium Eruditionis Habes

Offline tigershark

  • News Editor
  • General of Flight
  • *******
  • Posts: 2025
Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #28 on: April 24, 2009, 01:21:40 AM »
Hi alyster
You made some really interesting point.  You mentioned Pakistan in your post with Islamic revolution and maybe having special weapons fall into the wrong hands is a very valid point.  They might even be more unstable then Iran if that's possible.

The two most aggressive states comment is a little vague I know attacking Iraq the second time was a mistake but at the time 911, Bush and his adviser over reacted big time really miss the bus on that one.  Let's face it part of the reason Iraq is taking so long to fix in a sense is that it's was and is really messed up, not much different then most of the Middle East, I don't like saying it but backwards country's.  The country was held together by an inner secruity that basically killed who ever they want and local government and military was run by fear, so it was never a happy place.  Just non public and most that happen didn't always make it out. If you really care about the poor in the West Bank, Gaza, then Iraq should have been on the list as well plenty of same.

The A-bomb was not used just to see how its works and it used to shorten the future ground war.  In 1945 it seem like the right thing and I think at that time if other governments had it I think would have used it. You don't think if Russia had it they wouldn't have used it on the Germans?  Let not throw stones in glass houses here.  It was a different era of warfare and fighting and it was a weapon.  I think Germany would have used if they finished there's and it's the weapons part of it is why I don't want Iran to have it.  Russia and the US were smarter enough and had enough control never to use even at the height of the Cold War, sorry but I don't feel that control with Iran. 

Israel and it's surrounding lovely areas is a very complex topic.  Some in this forum see Israel as the wrong and the big evil.  I see little chance of convincing others differently on this matter.  The people in the West Bank and Gaza are there mainly because of others and held there in different ways by others.  Other Muslim country's which don't get any of the blame for making or helping the bad situation grow in the first place.  Being throw out and dump on Israel's border and then being screw over by own and used time after time to face a powerful force, well the locals pay for it.  The UN gave Israel some land in 1948 and voted on and agreed to, I can't change that.  This is a military forum how many countries in war after winning give back land?  Why should Israel after being attacked by so many?  I know I wouldn't and why should I if your letting other come though your country and kill woman and children.  I know its complex and I'm leaving out a bunch of stuff.  But to me the locals shoved on Israel's border in the first place by there own that have been used and suffered the most.  Thirty plus years of turning their backs to the shithole situation they help make.   I really think and I might piss people off here and I'm not Jewish but it's a Christ thing deep down.  If Israel was a Christian country and if it was the big bad Muslim countries ganging up on them it would be different. 

Back to the topic
I to wish there was a way of just taking out the reactors and making it look like an accident.  It is the way human life is valued in the Middle East for example blowing up each other at a anti-Israeli rally in Iraq.  Its these types and group which are currently active in Iran that I don't want them to have control over future weapons.   They may even use against each other never mind against the US or Israel, that's something else to think about. 

Offline Viggen

  • General of Flight
  • *******
  • Posts: 1413
  • Country: se
  • We are not promised a tomorrow.
Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #29 on: April 24, 2009, 02:08:38 AM »
You all make intresting and valid points. But lets face it, even if Iran manages to  weaponise their plutonium from a reactor. They still need to make a bomb and a reliable way of delivering the payload. Takes alot of money, time and science to achive so far.

I would be more worried about biological weapons finding their way into Iranian hands.  :)
  • Interests: SAAB 37 Viggen
Patrik S.

Offline tigershark

  • News Editor
  • General of Flight
  • *******
  • Posts: 2025
Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #30 on: April 24, 2009, 02:43:18 AM »
Hi Viggen
I so agree with you on the biological weapons weapons.

Sadly China could help them shorten that process the way they did with Pakistan M-11 (direct imports from China)

Offline Viggen

  • General of Flight
  • *******
  • Posts: 1413
  • Country: se
  • We are not promised a tomorrow.
Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #31 on: April 24, 2009, 02:55:43 AM »
Hi Tiger!

Nothing freaks me out as much as biological weapons. You cant hide from bacteria or viruses. The shit is easy to make and cheap. Not to mention how easy it is to deliver to your enemies front door.  :o

Today you can buy anything you want from China, from cheap replica Rolexes to cheap weaponsgrade biological viruses. The world is going crazy and not thinking that we all live and share  the same planet. All ABC-weapons should be outlawed by UN and sent into the sun for inciniration. ;D
  • Interests: SAAB 37 Viggen
Patrik S.

Offline RecceJet

  • Global Moderator
  • Fighter Ace
  • *******
  • Posts: 404
  • Country: au
Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #32 on: April 24, 2009, 07:40:31 AM »
Hey guys
I can't say I agree with Webmasters or RecceJet last post, but that's what makes the world and forums so special.
Quote
RecceJet 
Even if Israel retaliates after a strike by Iran, the region could collapse into a mess.
Hi RecceJet
What happens if that first strike by Iran is a nuclear there might not be an Israel left?  Do the people in Israel and if you think of it the surrounding country's would be effective if some sort of bomb was exploded, have to live in fear because of Iran?  There President has made it clear Israel should be wiped from the map.  I don't see Iran retracing any of these remarks and trying to lessen the situation, in fact there President goes on anti-Israeli tours trying to gain support and peaching his points.  Not exactly happy times if you live in Israel and this nut job is building nuclear reactors that can produce the needed  I'll say "things" for making weapons?  All it takes in some 2nd or 3rd party group to carry out the evil deed and Iran's governments makes a press release saying "The government of Iran had nothing to do with the attack on Israel" at that point its too late.

I'm not sure if you've noticed, but in your own response above you've come up with an alternative to Israel bombing Iran flat. You are right; the Iranian president stated that Israel should be wiped off the map. The Iranian president goes on anti-Israel tours. That should not paint all of Iran with the same brush. I'm sure you've known national leaders who you do not agree with, and that doesn't mean all the people of that country think the same way.

Solution? Well there are several! But apart from a pre-emptive strike, how about a Mossad assassination operation? Or a smear campaign to undermine the authority of the Iranian president. Perhaps if the country found out about some dirty little secrets he has kept, members of the Iranian leadership might launch a coup and the new government has a less aggressive stance.

The bottom line is that we don't always have to resort to bombs right away. There are endless alternatives before it gets as far as a shooting war. And on top of that, Israel has an entire military leadership that are exploring every means to stop Iran. I don't have to lose sleep over the difficult decisions that need to be made  :) .

It's not as though it's quiet one day and suddenly there's an inbound nuclear missile heading to Tel Aviv.

And as far as happy times go, if you live in Israel; that's all relative. People still go to night clubs and have holidays and play sports. It's life as usual in Israel, because they've been living with varying degrees of a threatened existence since 1948.

Offline RecceJet

  • Global Moderator
  • Fighter Ace
  • *******
  • Posts: 404
  • Country: au
Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #33 on: April 24, 2009, 07:46:59 AM »
I look at this way say some crazy guy threaten you, family, etc and you see him buying a gun at a gun store (Russia in this case).  What are you going to do?  You know this guy has killed before, you know guns he bought have been given to others have killed.  Are you going to sit back and do nothing while this crazy guy who said "I'll wipe your whole family out" and you know he buying a gun?  You can see through his window and see him putting the gun together.  To me this is where Israel stands and Iran does nothing to ease this at all in fact makes it worse when ever the shit head speaks.

So let's remove the gun, or remove the guy, or remove the firing pin, or the bullets. Maybe we can convince his family to kick him out. Bombing the house flat is not the only option.

Offline tigershark

  • News Editor
  • General of Flight
  • *******
  • Posts: 2025
Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #34 on: April 24, 2009, 01:58:10 PM »
Hi RecceJet
If that was truly an option by all means.  I prefer taking out the reactor like the "the firing pin, or the bullets" and not leveling the entire country.   

Offline SukhoiLover

  • Fighter Ace
  • *****
  • Posts: 269
  • Country: pt
Re: upcoming attack in Iran?!?!?!
« Reply #35 on: April 28, 2009, 04:03:11 PM »
Which AWACS did they buy????

By the way, do you think that Iran will be relocating their TOR M1 close to the factories and that in case of full scale war their will be airplane losses in the Israeli side??
http://sukhoitribute.blogspot.com/

English version: http://sukhoitributeenglish.blogspot.com/


Pavel be proud of your legacy!!!!

 



AVIATION TOP 100 - www.avitop.com click to vote for MILAVIA