I think that in comparison with the region, the IAF is not doing bad. I agree that progress on new acquisitions is slow, however I think that this it partly perception in this case. When the MRCA requirement was first formulated the press made it appear as if a type was already selected, every week another candidate was added. If you read carefully between the lines you'd have seen that it would take several years before the competition start and no formal request for proposals or offers had been made yet.
However...... now it starts, hehe
I think India's defence acquisitions are also influenced by the huge delays on work by India's defence industry, India wants to produce as much as possible locally, and has its own projects like the LCA, HJT and the helicopters to compete. National interests, dreams and pride seem to blind the decision makers. Of course it's not bad to develop your own industry, but I believe the promises these indigenous products make hinder the air force's procurement and development and strategy. There's a lot of propaganda going on though, in favor and against this industry/air force. But I believe the development of indigineous industry comes at a greater than anticipated cost.
Every time it looks like they are about to make a wise decision, some local product pop-ups, everyone starts dreaming and becomes indecisive. Or scale back plans.
- The MiG-21 upgrade was late caused by the choice to let HAL develop the upgrade, should have left it to MiG who were begging for work back then. And the promises of the LCA. This delay on the upgrade kinda turned out to be a good thing, because at least they still have flying MiG-21s till those LCA finally come on strength.
- The current MiG-29 Fulcrum upgrade may not have been neccessary if those Mirages would have been upgraded and proper numbers of Su-30MKI were ordered from Russia, instead of insisting local production of the bulk by HAL, which is already delayed.
- MiG-29K navalised equivalent of the MiG-29M/M2, excellent, why not order more now? And have some decent lead time for your own industry. Because some **** thought it would be great to navalize the LCA, that will be fun, can't wait.
- Which will also replace those SHarriers, so let's upgrade them in the mean time...
- India hasn't got a proper high&hot helicopter replacement yet, because the Dhruv was thought to be good for it? India seemed to have wait again too long before realizing it needs AS.550/Bell 407 and additional Mi-17s. Luckily, the latter can be delivered quick by Russia.
- And sure, if you can develop a Mi-24 upgrade and utility/recce helo on your own (ahum, IAI, ahum...) you can also develop your own attack helicopter.
- ASW capability gap by lack of Il-38 and Tu-142 airframes hardly filled up, ok, maybe not the most pressing thing.
- It looked for some years that India would have operational AWACS before China... not anymore...
- Order quantity and urgency behind the Hawk Mk.128 is low... because they have their own jet trainer now, don't they, it will enter production soon when testing is done (heard that before).
- Didn't India blew that Mirage 2000 deal with Dassault/Qatar initially by offering a price far too low, thinking they were the only possible customer?
- The MRCA, I am not sure, but yes, it seems as if they'll be getting them too late. Especially when they are tempted by US offers and drag their feet in negotiations over technology transfer and stuff.
Dassault closing the 2000-9 production line, which would have been the most economical option I think after the Gripen. After Russia it may have been the best technology transfer deal as well, when combined with the upgrade contract. Not sure if Gripen will be able to compete though... you know, they have the LCA coming!
- The fifth generation fighter, MCA, as you can read on the Wiki page Gripen posted, they are reluctant to settle for any less than a kind of equal share in development/production, I don't know if it's ignorance, arrogance or pride. They should step in with the Russian and stop bitching about development share. You get to produce them locally with latest Russian technology, probably getting them at a price for which you can't buy fourth generation European or US fighters. But again delays caused by dreams and pride of indigineous design. If they do it on their own, it will be a fourth generation, non fifth generation, Super LCA!
The thing is, honestly, they can afford the delays, postponing, spiralling costs, they are and will be financed/equipped good for the coming years compared to the region. They are the biggest export market for arms, they have everyone lined up for it, except for China. They are ahead, have a strong air force, but it's not perfect IMHO.
I'll wait and see what happens, but I wouldn't be surprised to see more delays and capability gaps coming. And doomed-to-fail local products.
China also has its problems, but it seems they are doing a better job overcoming them. Pakistan will benefit from this. I reckon by the time HAL finishes its 140th Su-30MKI kit, China/Pakistan will have at least 140 J-10 and 140 FC-1 in service between them (depending on how the latter fares with the PLAAF staff and whether the PAF settles for Chinese avionics). That's why India needs those 126 MRCAs soon, because those upgraded fighters will have been retired by then, and LCA won't be able to make up for that difference.
ConclusionI hope you found my view interesting. I agree with you, they're late with the MRCA order... but I don't think it will cause a big problem capability-wise providing HAL gets a move on with those Su-30MKIs now and those 18 new Irkuts-built Su-30MKI arrive quickly as well. Otherwise, it would be wise to order a larger amount of off-the-shelf MRCAs than to press on for tech transfers and local production. Then I think, the choice will ultimately be between the MiG-35 and the non-customized Falcon Block 50/60, because Rafale/Typhoon/S. Hornet and whatever else may enter the competition won't be able to meet the schedule or be HAL produced. But
see my view above, they probably wouldn't speed it up, because by then the MCA will be coming anyway
The upgrades are late, but like in the case of the MiG-21, it works out well for India. Because now the operational Su-30MKI fill the gap while the others are being upgraded, once upgraded they fill the gap to the MRCA. So they get away with it again. But I don't believe this was planned.
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