Let's see:
Fighters/Fighter-bombers
MiG-21bis/UM, in service, repaired in Ukraine/Russia
MiG-23B/BN/ML/MLD/UB, at least the MLD and UB in service, repaired in Ukraine/Russia, the MiG-23s are the backbone of the LAAF.
MiG-25R grounded late 1990s, retired, some preserved.
Mirage F1, grounded/retired, 12 earmarked to be restored/upgraded if neccessary.
Su-22M, in service, repaired in Ukraine/Russia
Su-24MK, five of six delivered are remaining, repaired and at least two are back in service
Trainers
L-39, repaired in Ukraine.
Galeb G2, repaired in-country by Serbians from Moma Stanojlovic
SF-260, 130 of 240 remaining, only 80 can be returned to airworthy status. They are in service, but reliability is poor. LIATEC offered to refurbish initial batch of 12.
Helicopters
Mi-8, in service
Mi-14PL, in service, doing mostly MPA duties
Mi-25, in service, probably repaired/overhauled as well, on some recent pics they look in excellent condition.
CH-47C, to be overhauled/upgraded by LIATEC
Transport/Misc.
An-2
An-26
An-32P fire fighters, 4 in service
An-72, handful, 5 with Libyan Air Cargo
An-74, status?
An-124, one operated by Libyan Air Cargo
C-130E/H, parts shortage, service: 2 (2006), 1 (2007), when US bans are lifted overhaul by DERCO or Marshall
Il-76MD, most flying under civil reg, operated by Libyan Air Cargo/Air Transport.
Il-78, status?
Now, concerning replacements and new acquisitions, this is interesting:
LAVEX06 participants:
Italy:
A109 Power, 10 ordered for border police
A119 Koala, 5 ordered for EMS
MB-339CD
M-311, AJT contender
EH101 AEW, quite interesting the AEW version
Cessna F425 of a mapping company
Russia:
Mi-35M, possible Mi-25 replacement
France:
Cessna F406 MPA, Reims Aviation for MPA contract
Rafale B, 1x, future fighter
Others:
Do-228 MPA, by RUAG GmbH for MPA contract
At the time of LAVEX06, it was rumoured Libya had a requirement for 14 MPA aircraft.
LAVEX07 participants:
Italy:
ATR 42-500 MPA, see above contract
AW109 Power, I think just a A109 with a more powerful engine? Or just the same.
AW139, presumably offered as SAR/Air Ambulance to replace the Mi-8s, but could be limited to VIP
C-27J Spartan, replace An-26, however because of Lockheed involvement, Alenia would only be able to sell this when US lifts ban? Libya did operate the G.222 in the past, so the C-27J could be ideal.
Do-228, for support
EH101, the ASW variant, possible Mi-14 replacement
M311, AJT to replace L-39/G2
Russia:
Mi-35M, possible Mi-25 replacement
MiG-29OVT, suggest Mi-35 for possible next gen fighter.
France:
Rafale B, 2x, possible next gen fighter
Tiger, possible Mi-25 replacement?
Others:
Serbia, Stars Aerobatic Team, 5x Galeb G2
Probably not complete but enough to draw some conclusions.
Industry
The Libyan Aviation Industry / Finmeccanica / AgustaWestland joint venture called Libya-Italy Advanced Technology Company - LIATEC will assembly the remaining eight A109s on order for the police. The A109 will kickstart the Lybian aviation industry. Meanwhile Maintenance Centre 003 at Metiga has started to commercialize its services based on its wide experience with overhauling Russian transport aircraft.
Dassault vs MiG
According to an interview with LAAF Col Juma Zaid El Gaddaffi by AFM (Jan 08), Request for Proposals was expected to issued between Jan-Mar 2008. Initial purchase would consist of six aircraft with six options. However the MoU with France, signed afterwards is for 14?
Libya does not have MiG-29s, so an SMT deal may mean acquiring surplus Russian MiG-29s as well. I think Lybia will go for new MiG-35s instead, when they decide to go with MiG. Relations with France are good, relations with Sarkozy are good as well as relations with French oil companies. Reportedly, a LAAF delegation visited Russia to meet with RAC MiG.
Su-30MK, I don't know, there's no mention of this in the AFM article/interview, and it hasn't been showed to Libya. I think it's considered too big/expensive to maintain.
A split-buy is also possible with both French and Russian aircraft. The LAAF had been hit hard by the sanctions, so they'd be more concerned about logistics problems caused by embargoes, than the maintenance/logistics problems caused by twice as many parts and suppliers. Now with a split-buy the SMT makes more sense, they are rebuild airframes so can be delivered quicker than Rafales or MiG-35s. So we can see 6x MiG-29SMT, followed by 6x Rafales, which may later be expanded with another 8 Rafale. Alternatively, if the Rafales would be taken from the AdlA or current production for the AdlA, it would mean the Rafale can beat the MiG-35 in delivery. So we might see 6x Rafale, with an option for 8x Rafale for if the MiG-35 contract negotiations fail.
Having a fleet of just 6 is crazy IMHO, but they did it with the Su-24MK...
Aermacchi vs Yakovlev
The M-311 has been shown trice already now, and the LAAF seems very impressed with it. Now with LIATEC, this might be a good possibility. However, the Yak-130 is also an option. Actually, if you read the headlines, you would think they'd already ordered six, half a year ago. But if you read carefully, you'll see that it's more like a memorandum of understanding, or request for information. Why no Yak-130 at LAVEX07 then?
Helicopters
With the A109/A119 line setup, we might see more orders for the type, also for the military. The AW139 looks like a perfect contender to replace the Mi-8 in both military as civilian roles, although expensive. Let's see if France can offer some of it's helicopters? In the meantime, the Mi-8/17 are easily supported and can soldier on. The EH101 AEW and ASW version might be a suitable replacement for the Mi-14. The remaining CH-47C will be returned to service, upgraded. Finally, you have the Mi-35M and Tiger competing for a new attack helicopter contract, either to expand or replace the current fleet of Mi-25s. This looks to go the way of the Hind...with the Mi-25 repaired and retained for training. However, since the two are so different, we might see both types being ordered eventually.
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