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Should the F/A-22 Raptor be offered for export?
Webmaster:
Should the U.S. (re)consider to export its most advanced aircraft, the F/A-22 Raptor, to its closest allies?
The Foreign Military Sales program of the U.S. proved to be highly successfull in the past. Supporting national security, political goals, economic goals, military goals and interoperability with its allies. So what are the benefits and concerns for the United States if it would export their newest fighter:
Industrial considerations:
The Research & Development is largely completed, the production infrastructure is in place. Therefor an export version of the F/A-22 would benefit the production lines and US industry in general. Increased production can give a positieve return on investment, will increase competitiveness of the US in the fighter market specially but also in other industrial areas, and could ultimately decrease unit cost.
Increased flexbility:
If allies have their own F/A-22 support infrastructure, the US military will be more flexible in positioning the F/A-22 around the world.
US Displomacy:
Diplomacy is an important guarantor of American security. Giving trusted US allies access to a capabality such as the F/A-22, expresses confidence and recognition of the allies. This would advance diplomatic goals and gain access and leverage for US interetests.
Regional security:
Some believe that giving allies leading edge technology, combat capability and minimize their risk will contribute to regional stability. As they have better ability to fight along with the US and take on more missions on their own. It would demonstrate a commitment to their security by the US, and give them more confidence in the US and their own combat effectiveness. :-\ I fail to see how this would increase regional stability?
Interoperability:
A high level of interoperability with allies is very important to successfully conduct combat and post-conflict operations in a coalition environment. The US should not leave its allies behind in its technology advance.
Cost and Technology Concerns
1. US allies will not be interested in the F/A-22 because of its high cost.
2. Exporting the F/A-22 will lead to unwanted technology transfers.
For 1, one can argue that in a market of $158 billion, a superior product, although more expensive, will find a place in the market.
For 2, one can argue that the can be overcome these concerns. The most sensitive technology would not be included in the export version or would remain under US control. The US should limit who may buy them and make clear understanding that the technology can not be offered to third parties.
Conclusion
A carefully thought-out export version of the F/A-22 could benefit both the U.S. and its trusted allies.
All of above is a quick summary of an article by Jack Spencer and others, published by the Heritage Foundation at http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/em970.cfm
My opinion
In my opinion, there are some more concerns and they are bigger than the article makes them appear.
Trusted Allies? Effect on diplomacy
I think the "trusted allies" is a big issue. How can they know which nations are among those? Although it may contribute to diplomacy offering the F/A-22 to one ally, it will negatively effect the diplomacy in other - perhaps more sensitive - countries who you deny access to the technology. For example think about Taiwan - China, Pakistan - India, Israel - Arabic world, Turkey - Greece.
Technology transfer and licensed production
Germany, France, UK have their own industries and they wouldn't want to buy export-downgraded F/A-22s and still don't get the desired technology level transfer. They want their industries to benefit as well and not buy off-the-US-shelf, they would want licensed production. So there goes the benefits for US production lines for a large part.
Then costs.
Politicians of nearly all allies, fail to see the need for high-tech high numbers of modern fighters. And other nations included. Of course it will find a market somewhere among the trusted allies (Japan should be a good candidate, and Australia would benefit), but will those numbers create a positive return on investment? I have my doubts, maybe it will be just enough to justify the costs of keeping the production line open and enforcing security and agreements on the technology secrets.
Where's the market?
I fail to see a sizeable market. Countries that can afford a proper number of them to keep the production lines open, have their own aviation industries and technology developments or can't be trusted. Countries that buy off-the-shelf can not afford them, are not trusted, are in a politically sensitive situation, or settle for something more economical.
Big trusted ally?
Israel would surely be interested in buying them. But can they be trusted? Their partnership in the JSF program has been suspended because of sales and technology transfers to China (and probably other non-US allies). Also how would providing the F/A-22 to Israel provide regional stability? Okay, they won't invade Israel again...but that's security, not regional stability. And here I mention again, the "diplomacy kick-back".
JSF perhaps Biggest Concern
The things with trust, diplomacy, return on investment...are all very well. But what the article fails to see is the impact it has on the JSF. The JSF is aimed at precisely the same market! US allies that need technological advanced American product for interoperability and combat effectiveness, but can be trusted with that technology. The JSF in order to be a economical success, should not be downgraded. So the advantages of a more expensive, downgraded F/A-22 with limited access to technology, and no license production, has what advantages over a JSF that will be operated in larger numbers, by more countries and does offer the industrial advantages. Those who can be trusted with F/A-22...will not buy Russian when they don't get it, they will buy the JSF or develop their own using US technology and parts. With the missed sales on the JSF program...how much can be gained for the US industry from selling smaller numbers of F/A-22?
;D Aight, that was me, now let's hear your opinions!
Joopey:
There are a lot of different angles to this problem. If it is a problem!
First of all, there was this little mistake the US made in the seventies, by selling one of their top-fighter, the F-14, to a trusted ally. Who would have thought that the situation in Iran could change that fast. Not even the NSA/CIA.
This means the US is gonna this think this one over quite thoroughly.
There are of course some allies that are trustworthy. Australia was mentioned by the author, the UK, some other NATO-allies. Japan is trusted, I think (and a possible buyer after the F-2 debacle).
That means there are some theoretical candidates. But why should they buy the F/A-22. I believe the unit price of one F/A-22 is about $ 300.000.000 (count the zero’s …). A good export sale could lower this price, but its never going to be cheap. It’s the most expensive of the ‘Big Four’. F/A-22, Eurofighter Typhoon, Rafale and the Grippen. You can buy about 4 Eurofighters for the price of 1 F/A-22!
Again, looking at capability, why should they buy it. OK, the F/A-22 is the best airplane of ‘Big Four’. But it only works as part of an integrated warfare-system like operated by the US. Buying a few F/A-22’s is great, but making full use of the extra capability (that makes it stand out over the other 3 aircraft) would mean a massive investment in a huge integrated system (AWACS, ELINT, etc.). Systems most countries don’t have and can't afford neither .
And by the way, the battlefield-dominance doctrine of the US will probably not work with smaller buyers. The US believes the enemy will not even try to send in aircraft with the F/A-22 hovering overhead. With 200+ aircraft in your inventory you’re probably right. But with a small number of F/A-22’s its possible the enemy might take a chance…
I think Lockheed-Martin should be extremely thankful they won the JSF competition…
Berkut:
It's too expensive I think nobody wants to see the most expansiva plane go down.
Joopey:
--- Quote from: Berkut on June 10, 2005, 12:14:40 AM ---I think nobody wants to see the most expansiva plane go down.
--- End quote ---
What about the enemy..?
Berkut:
;) Hah
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