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Author Topic: The Lightning II vs. EADS Typhoon thread  (Read 13953 times)

Offline Icarus

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The Lightning II vs. EADS Typhoon thread
« on: August 09, 2007, 09:32:11 AM »
Ok, since the other thread was about an article of the F-35 in Code One magazine, discussing the EFA vs. L2 would be a hijacking, so I open this new thread for discussion (not rage against the machines ;D ) and I hope a nice informative thread develops out of it. So, to make the start, Webmaster made some points on the other thread, I give my points on the thread here  :)

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ou are comparing total programme cost for the RAF with early unit cost estimates for the USAF? That $40-45 estimate is from the time the market size was expected to be 5000 aircraft, in what? FY97 dollars?

The US total cost for the JSF has already risen to nearly $300 billion. With a requirement of 2400-2500 aircraft. That's 120-125 million per aircraft, with 1600-1700 of them being the least expensive F-35A. In 2000-2001, the pricetag for export customers was already estimated at 85-90 million per aircraft. In 2005-2006, it was 100 million. Let's see where the off-the-shelf price will end, as well as the cost for the USAF.

You can't even get a new F-16 Block 40 for that. $40 million is what India thinks its Su-30MKIs cost, produced with cheaper labor, based on an existing design with existing engines and parts... reportedly Chavez paid the same for its less capable Su-30MKVs. The "affordable" Gripen has been selling at $80 million per aircraft (okay with support and what not), with development already paid for by Sweden.

By the way, cost per unit for the Raptor has already been upped to 180-200 million, since the last time USAF dropped it's order as far as I know. And the B-2 with it's highest 1-1.2 billion per piece estimates, has risen to a 2-2.1 billion estimate now more has become known about the development program's cost.

Now, since all contracts have different terms, and it's too early to tell how much they will eventually cost, I don't want to go on about this. But the $40-50 price tag is well dated. It is not going to be cheap! It's actually looking rather nasty, even the US account office calculations proved the estimated price already to be well exceeded. I think it was something like 20% per year?

You're right, it's better to compare when both have proven their capabilities and performance. But the same goes for their cost.  Wink

Typhoon full A-S suite is scheduled for 2010. Currently Block 7 aircraft will get limited LGB capability. We'll see Typhoon with bombs over Afghanistan next year probably. That's still 5 years earlier than any JSF optimist might say, hehehe.

You're not serious about "drop what a B-52 can drop" I hope? Maybe 'could in theory drop' what a B-52 'does drop nowadays'?

Indeed, the Typhoon will fly on Afghanistan next year :) But that's at least 6 years after any EFA pessimist would say too. :p

In any case, I don't think the 19 billion pounds is the total development cost of the aircraft since this is only what RAF paid for them. Italy, Germany and Austria will have to pay their own individual price tags as well. Still, I find this too much for an aircraft that out of the box does not pack a modern type of radar and stealth - active or passive. Their cost will even go higher if you have to upgrade them later to reach levels the F-35 will have by default - and at the same price tag at worse. I look at it like that:

1. The basic aircraft costs the price tag above
2. It doesn't have any features of the aircraft that will compete
3. You'll have to put them (and pay even more) later in their lives, when they'll be present by default. And we talk about big things here - modern radars, stealth, and even the basic A2G capability ! And of course, training for it additional to the basic training you will have given to the pilots - unless UK buys the aircraft to keep them in hangars for the next 4 years. Even then, the radar of the L2 will be better (americans have more experience and manufacturing tech than us unfortunately) good stealth, and much more space for improvements that the Typhoon won't have - remember, this is very limited on aircraft and the more you upgrade, the less it becomes.

Of course we can resort on the "And you think that country X that bought the < one of the two aircraft goes here > is stupid ?", but this is futile too as for UK, Spain and Germany its an in-house product which will be complemented in some by the F-35, and Austria and S.Arabia haven't bombed anyone in their entire history. Their need is for point defense interceptors. The same goes for the F-35, countries buying it need bombing capabilities and they have/will have something else for real aerial warfighting ;D

If in the future the need for super interceptors arises, and the Typhoon gets a good AESA radar and stealth, for sure my opinion will vastly change about it.  Besides, right now I still wonder why we canceled those 60 aircraft - well not really, it's obvious, but my heart sank when we did lol. It's the same with the Mirage - a point interceptor with limited A2G capability - but as you see, I loveit :D . The Typhoon is in the area of my "love interest", but we need to try harder as an european combat aircraft industry to make it really better than it's counterparts.

And indeed, I don't put the "what the B52 can drop" literally. But with the amount of SDBs it can carry, their precision and their power, it sure is more than anything we have today, short of a strategic bomber .And it's still stealthy, something the Strike Eagle is definitely not !
« Last Edit: August 09, 2007, 09:40:05 AM by Icarus »

Offline tigershark

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Re: The Lightning II vs. EADS Typhoon thread
« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2007, 12:20:50 AM »
I agree with a lot of what you mention and will add few of my own comments as well.   The Typhoon as fighter because of the missiles it can carry isn't worth the money in a way.   If you think about it after the F-15C equipped with a ASEA radar and armed basically with the same missile, still might get the first shot off.   Your point about the added capabilities not even built into the current aircraft will drive the price up even more your right.  I might want my $70 million dollar high Block-Viper, and save $40 or so million per aircraft for training and spares.  I can't stop thinking that EADS, I'm sure because of money just waited five or maybe six years too late getting the finished product out.   Put a better missiles on a high end Flanker and it's looking like a much better investment, at least money wise.  I'm sure the Typhoon is a great fighter and I assume some of it's special capabilities aren't released to the public but it's cost overruns is the killer.    For a mid size air force unless my enemies were armed to the teeth with very high end fighters and a lot of them I would shy away this fighter sadly.  Webmaster mention high maintenance compared to Flankers in a different post too so for me this aircraft had to come in just a little bit higher then say Block-50 Vipers to capture a big market share.    Maintenance and training have to be added in when buying a new type.   Almost any air force would be converting from Vipers/Mig-29/Mirage 2000 series/ Flankers so a lot of money is needed up front to throw into converting, as well as the high cost of the aircraft themselves.   Major off-sets like the seller investing in the buyers economy would seem to be must in any deal.   
« Last Edit: September 01, 2007, 04:58:35 AM by nonpilot »

Offline osuorsa

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Re: The Lightning II vs. EADS Typhoon thread
« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2007, 03:10:04 PM »
I'll say it as straight as I can....The F-35 Lighting II is an aircraft that has no significant advantage over anything even today! So, how's the thing after few years when it will (IF it will) come into service!! It tends to look like the American projects in the past to promote its F-5s to every ally..........A good example is Australia! It has possibility to purchase a lot of F-35s or to hang on with the optional Super Hornets becouse the USA wont sell Raptors for them (or anybody else just now)......I don't like the plane at all.....

I would prefer more likely the Typhoon....Think how many Typhoons you can get in price of one master of none F-35....

Offline tigershark

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Re: The Lightning II vs. EADS Typhoon thread
« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2007, 02:11:44 AM »
The advantage is that it's stealthy and maybe when more is released about the aircraft it might be stealthy enough to get a first shot on a Typhoon.    I'm sorry but I can't see how you could dislike an aircraft before it's even built for final sale yet.   Its much more stealthy then any Typhoon will be and most likely cost less per unit.   Its a 5th generation aircraft and everything learn from the F-117 and F-22 will be built into to it.    My friend valkyrian doesn't like it either much but give it time it's going to be good and the F-5 was a fine aircraft.javascript:void(0);
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Offline Gripen

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Re: The Lightning II vs. EADS Typhoon thread
« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2007, 02:23:32 AM »
I dont like the F-35, never have and probably never will


Offline osuorsa

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Re: The Lightning II vs. EADS Typhoon thread
« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2007, 01:14:48 PM »
About the the F-35's stealth. It is more stealthy than the Typhoon. That's true. BUT. When the US is going to export it, they will reduce the stealthiness of the plane (because of the secrecy around the stealth features and fear of loosing the secrets to nations they are not willing to show 'em). And that's one thing that for instance Britain and Australia are  arguing aobut. So how well will this 'half-stealth' F-35 handle with too fastly (for the F-35 proof of concept) developing Russian, Chinese and Indian radar and missile seeker technology...The Australian ministry of defence have already noticed that with the given radar and stealthiness of the F-35 the plane will be under fire of the most modern Su-30/-35s before getting within the range to use its own weaponry...It'll be shortlegged against Russian built fighters in terms of weapons, range, speed, agility and sensors.....So that is the case of this political choise of piece of rubbish.

Offline tigershark

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Re: The Lightning II vs. EADS Typhoon thread
« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2007, 03:38:46 PM »
Hello osuorsa
Why do you feel it will be under fire before being able to use it's weapons against Su-30/35 types.  AA-12 do out range Slammers currently but the distance is closer to being the same.  Other Russian made advance longer range missiles aren't in full production yet some may never be finished.   It should be a lot more stealthy then a Typhoon therefor be able to get in range for it's missile at a point of it's choosing.  I wouldn't call a F-35 short legged for it's size it will have a decent combat range with payload.   I'll have to look it up but I think it has the second or third largest fuel load of any US fighter aircraft in it's inventory.   Also the final specs on it's range aren't released and may classified.  Flankers are huge aircraft and have larger fuel cells therefor can carry more fuel.   Because of there size they carry the most fuel of any currently fighter type produced in the world.  I don't think the F-35 was design to be the most agile fighter in the world so comparing it to a Flanker doesn't seem fair it's not apples to apples.   A better comparison for agility would be the F-22 a aircraft design as fighter from the start against the Flanker.   And sensors I really feel the United States are way ahead of Russia in this area.   Russia doesn't even field a AESA radar yet I think with funding and time Russia could do well in this area but currently their not in the same class.   Can I ask you why do you think an aircraft basically designed and produce after the F-22 would be a piece of rubbish?  It's like saying a certain model of 2009 car will stink and it's not even made yet, I don't understand.   The aircraft final spec's aren't even really released yet and changes are still being made.   Don't worry I would think Australia and England would get a very high level F-35 if it is truly setup that way.    javascript:void(0);
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« Last Edit: October 13, 2007, 03:41:58 PM by nonpilot »

Offline tigershark

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Re: The Lightning II vs. EADS Typhoon thread
« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2007, 05:40:08 AM »
Something I found and thought I'll add to the thread

The F-35 is Worth the Cash
Defense Tech friend and Strategy Page contributor Harold Hutchison sent this quick piece over to us on the Joint Strike Fighter. I’ll post it here as food for thought, and we look forward to Harold’s next post on aviation and other defense-related subjects.

My two cents on the issue is that I tend to agree with his thesis that the JSF is a good buy given its performance and stealth. What he does not address, however, is the likelihood the cost will climb even further if the program’s buy is reduced. Then the cost/performance ratio won’t be as compelling as Harold’s analysis today.

There's rumbling in both Congress and the Pentagon that the STOVL version may get dumped, the Navy won't buy in the numbers they'd previously thought, the Brits may bail...all these events are possible and could throw the value argument out the window. We'll see. But on the face of it, Harold's got a pretty good point. Read on...

    Is the F-35 overhyped? That is one question that is being asked in light of both American refusal to release the source code for software, as well as the climbing price (up to $63 million per-plane). The real answer depends on what competing aircraft have to offer.

    How does the F-35 compare in the air-to-air mission against likely competitors like the French Rafale, the Swedish Gripen, and the multi-national Eurofighter? All of European planes boast some of the best electronics suites that have ever provided for a combat aircraft. All are capable of high speed (over 2,000 kilometers an hour). All three aircraft carry excellent beyond-visual-range missiles (like the Mica, AMRAAM, and Meteor). All are highly maneuverable. But will they be better than the F-35 in a fight?

    The answer, surprisingly, is probably not. The F-35 has one big advantage over these three fighters from Europe. Its radar signature, its vulnerability to being picked up on radar, is very low – as is the case with the F-117 and F-22. Given that its speed is pretty comparable to the European jets, and its AESA radar is at least as good as the European systems, this is a decisive advantage. The best weapons in the world are useless if they cannot see their targets.

Full story
http://www.defensetech.org/archives/003673.html

Offline Raptor

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Re: The Lightning II vs. EADS Typhoon thread
« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2007, 09:24:05 AM »
Interesting thread. Surpisingly, i've never really respected the F-35 as a fighter. More like a work of art.  ;D

Well, it is a better fighter than the European counterparts. But with the massive price difference, i don't know about the 'worth the cash' bit.

The missile range is a little dubious, since two fighters hurtling at each other at mach 1 mach make mach 2. And that's pretty fast. By the time the pilot responds, HE will be in range of the opposing fighter. Wierd, huh?
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Offline Webmaster

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Re: The Lightning II vs. EADS Typhoon thread
« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2007, 02:06:48 PM »
Quote
There's rumbling in both Congress and the Pentagon that the STOVL version may get dumped, the Navy won't buy in the numbers they'd previously thought, the Brits may bail...all these events are possible and could throw the value argument out the window. We'll see. But on the face of it, Harold's got a pretty good point. Read on...

Well, I don't think the Brits will bail, because I think they'll understand what it will mean for BAE, and for the defence budget if they need to develop their own fifth generation STOVL fighter for their two new carriers. And those source code arguments have been resolved.

But I'd like to add, that the USAF would rather buy 198 more F-22s that it says it needs, in favour of getting the full number of 1763 planned F-35s, a number which is already ambitious yet disappointing compared to the total of 2231 F-16s which onces served with the USAF (out of 4200 built). With all other countries dropping their fighter fleet significantly (e.g. Netherlands, compare 213 F-16s bought, 85 F-35s planned or Belgium 160 vs 60 fighters today), how will this magical number of 4,000 aircraft built ever be reached? A number which is still used as the basic for most cost calculations!?

Another thing is that it looks that the production schedule (at least for the USAF) will be so slow, it will take 40 years for all those aircraft to be delivered??

With the F-35C being far from development, when will the USN get their CTOL fifth generation fighter? Won't it be time to go completely unmanned by then?


The up to 178 F-15C with APG-63(V)3 AESA radar and new AIM-120C/D AMRAAM and AIM-9X missiles might seems impressive today, but don't forget these are predominantly the "Golden Eagles" that the USAF will keep in its inventory to operate alongside the F-22s for many years to come. The Typhoon is armed with the maybe the best pulse doppler phased array radar around today. ASRAAM missiles which are as good as the AIM-9X, about the same AMRAAM missiles, and Meteor/IRIS-T coming. Don't talk down the Typhoon, just because it hasn't got AESA yet.

Stealth is relative, I'd love to see today how stealthy a F-117 or B-2 will look on a 2025-ish airborne or ground intercept radar...

Quote
I don't think the F-35 was design to be the most agile fighter in the world so comparing it to a Flanker doesn't seem fair it's not apples to apples.   A better comparison for agility would be the F-22 a aircraft design as fighter from the start against the Flanker.

F-35 vs Flanker not fair, but F-22 vs Flanker would be?  ;D Both cases is comparing a fifth generation design to a third generation design upgraded with fourth generation systems/features. It won't be fair to the Flanker. Flankers are no longer high-end not-to-be exported machines anymore, they are mainstream. The F-22 isn't. Compare the F-22 to the upcoming T-50 and the Flankers to the F-15 "Golden Eagles" and F-15S/K/I versions, if you want fair.
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Offline Raptor

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Re: The Lightning II vs. EADS Typhoon thread
« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2007, 12:25:36 PM »
Stealth is relative, I'd love to see today how stealthy a F-117 or B-2 will look on a 2025-ish airborne or ground intercept radar...

I heard something about using microwaves to detect stealth aircraft already being in place. Any truth in that?
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