European Fighter Boom

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European Fighter Boom

For a part of the world best known for reluctant and mostly stagnant defense spending, Europe is the setting for one rather unlikely, but extremely active, market. There has been an explosion in the number of nations now looking for new combat aircraft.

Away from the well-established programs for the Eurofighter Typhoon (in the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and Austria), the Lockheed Martin F-35 (UK, Italy, Netherlands, Turkey) and Dassault's Rafale in France, Show News estimates there are more than 10 new competitive fighter requirements in various stages of resolution across Europe.

Bob Kemp, Gripen International's sales and marketing director, cast his eye over the European situation for Show News and commented, "The activity out there is unbelievable, if you compare it with just four years ago. We have hit a 30-year roll-over point from the intensity of the Cold War. Each air force now wants a fighter in 2010, for the next 30-year cycle. It's as if every air force guy can only think in terms of zeros, and 30 years! Eighteen months ago Gripen had one active sales campaign, by our definition. Now it's six." The same is true for all the manufacturers competing for the current and emerging swathe of European requirements.

Denmark & Norway

Alone among the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) international partner nations, Denmark and Norway insist they will run open competitions to select their next-generation F-16 replacement. Both countries have broadly similar requirements - each needs about 48 new jets - and both are following a similar timeline. Norway is slightly ahead, with a selection expected in late 2008 and a formal procurement announcement in early 2009. Denmark's decision is expected at the end of 2009. In Norway there is a straight fight between the Saab Gripen and Lockheed Martin's JSF. Earlier this year Eurofighter withdrew from the competition, expressing its dissatisfaction at the bid process. The Gripen and the JSF are also facing off in Denmark, where there has recently been an unsolicited bid from Boeing to include the Super Hornet. Boeing's offer is believed to be under evaluation, although it's not clear how it can be accommodated into the formal program. While the Netherlands remains steadfastly locked into its JSF plan, there is a slight possibility that outlook could change if either Norway of Denmark choose another option.

Switzerland

The Swiss requirement is for an F-5E Tiger II replacement and a formal Request for Proposals (RfP) will be issued in July. Initial responses to a Request for Information (RfI) are already being thoroughly evaluated at an air force, industrial and governmental level. The Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale and Saab Gripen are each in the running. Earlier this year Boeing withdrew the Super Hornet on the grounds that it exceeded the Swiss requirements by too wide a margin. Where that leaves the remaining twin-engined heavyweight contenders is anyone's guess. Switzerland is not expected to request a specific number of aircraft. Instead it will set out several operational scenarios and ask potential suppliers to meet them. This is quite a novel approach for a fighter buy and is expected to lead to an order for 20 to 30 aircraft. Switzerland will also impose noise and environmental constraints that will challenge the bidders. Later this summer a series of flight evaluations will be held in-country. Bidders will submit their best and final offers (BAFOs) in early 2009, with a contract anticipated in mid-2009.

Romania

A decision on new aircraft is fast approaching in Romania. The national Armaments Directorate has completed its technical evaluations from a short-list of Saab Gripen and Lockheed Martin's F-16. Romania's selection process, described to Show News as "a detailed and far-reaching process, that evaluated suppliers and operators and quietly got on with it" is expected to lead to an order for up to 48 aircraft, probably in two phases. On May 16, via the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency, Romania registered its potential interest in acquiring 24 F-16C/D Block 50/52s and 24 refurbished F-16C/D Block 25s (total package value up to $4.5 billion/EUR2.85 billion). Gripen International has made equivalent offers, including a Gripen/Gripen NG package. Romania is believed to be looking for several financing options to make its acquisition possible. With elections due at the end of 2008 a fighter decision is expected either before the summer or otherwise in early 2009.

Croatia

In April Croatia issued an RfI for the replacement of its 12 MiG-21 fighters. The RfI was issued to seven contenders - a longer list than even India's mighty fighter program. Potential bidders include the Dassault Mirage 2000-5, surplus Dassault Mirage F1 from a French supplier, Eurofighter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin F-16, surplus F-16s from Israel, MiG-29M (MiG-35) and Saab Gripen. A downselect is expected by the end of the summer with an RfP to be issued to two or three suppliers by late 2008/early 2009.

Greece

The on-again-off-again saga of Greece's new fighter procurement is on again with a new RfP expected by the end of the summer. The Eurofighter Typhoon was previously selected to meet this requirement, but that deal was shelved - and the blame laid on the costs of the Athens Olympics. The Greek Air Force is now preparing a new procurement strategy proposal, and an international tender is expected. While Eurofighter enjoys an incumbent position, there is expected to be a renewed competition between the Typhoon, Super Hornet, Rafale, F-16, Gripen, perhaps the Su-30 plus the potential for the JSF to be offered further down the line.

The Rest of Europe

Bulgaria is currently reassessing its procurement budgets and with a new defense minister now in place a fighter requirement is expected to become a priority. In 2009 Belgium is expected to issue an RfI for its F-16 replacement program. As a European Partner Air Force that opted not to join the JSF program, the Belgian approach to new fighter procurement will be watched with great interest. In Eastern Europe Slovenia should soon start discussions with NATO on how to fulfill its air defense requirements, and a new fighter purchase is possible. Serbia wants to follow a similar path of closer ties with the EU and NATO, and it too needs new aircraft. Looking slightly further ahead, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are examining their future fast jet needs, to perhaps bring new aircraft into service from 2012 to 2015. Finland also has an emerging requirement for an F/A-18C replacement around 2018/2020.

Source
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/EURO052708.xml&headline=European%20Fighter%20Boom