Instead of running a proper tender, and issue Request for Proposals from the supplier, the MoD just wants to make sure it gets the JSF so it makes its own price calculations for the possible alternatives. An effort to stop parliament from even requiring them to have a serious look at them. Although I think most parties not agreeing with the JSF purchase, would actually be happy with new F-16s, or better yet no fighters!
The Rafale calculation is based on the Libya proposal, as you see for only 13-18 aircraft. With 85 aircraft the unit cost will be undoubtely be lower (less overhead per aircraft probably), plus you have way more negotiating power. Plus we have alternatives, Libya really hasn't until the US cancels the embargo. The French have yet to sell the Rafale, imagine what kinda deal could be forged if you would buy 85 from them. If they cost 60 million Euros to produce (2004), maybe 80 million now, anything above that should already be a great relief to France. It's almost like subsidizing France. It's ridiculous to think that they should let us pay the same as Libya, first and foremost because such a cost figure can never ever compete with 'our' alternatives.
The Eurofighter again is considered from a off-the-shelf perspective (but this time it does make more sense than previously). What would it mean for the Tranche 3 if we would raise the requirement by 85 aircraft. It can't be cancelled then and we could still get a development share, taking up the share possibly dropped by Italy or Germany. Both the Saudi and Austria cases can be questioned with regards to how these deal materialized. Anyway, Austria is again a small order. And with Saudi ties with the UK, it's hardly any benchmark for a Dutch Eurofighter deal. Regarding negotiation power, let's say we would want Eurofighters, what will this mean for the Danish and Norwegian and eventual Belgian decision. There could be a Eurofighter powerhouse! 2030-2040 we can collectively carry out a mid-life update, cutting the cost of life-time costs per unit.
Unfortunately they don't say what they expect to pay for the JSF, but I sure hope they are no longer with working with the US$45 million figure anymore, nor the ROI based on estimated production of 4500 units. Taking the Eurofighter case from 57 million euros in 1999 to 113 million euros now, that's like a 100% increase, but somehow I'm convinced that the same has already happened to the JSF price, without having entered production!
Also both alternatives are criticized for development delays and uncertainty regarding T3 and F4. But at the same time, it seems there's no concern whatsoever of what a baseline F-35A model for export countries will look like. I bet it has to go thru several Blocks and Upgrade cycles before it becomes what leaders envisage it to be. No problem, but now how will that translate into unit costs.
Anyway, it's too late now anyway. The MOD/AF has set their eyes on the JSF and with the industry and air force involved in its development it makes little sense to switch to another option now. And perhaps rightly so, for warfighter capability (especially if we plan to wage war alongside the US anyway instead of EUFOR) and secondly if this US recession (or at least the US-EUR exchange rate) will carry on like this, the JSF might even become cheaper than the Russian aircraft by 2015! But what happens if the tide turns and USD 100 M translates to EUR 150 M, then the Eurofighter looks pretty cheap.
Summarized, it's a poor parlementary report aimed only at convincing parliament of the JSF choice made previously. Don't give it too much credit. They are all equally expensive in one way or another.
Even though the JSF will probably turn out to have been the right choice (as with the F-16 previously), I'm so agitated about this whole issue because of the way these things are done. I just feel that even some third world countries have better defence procurement processes in place!?
For example, we established an urgent need for more Chinook helicopters, they were like ah good Boeing has the CH-47F now, that's the best we can get, let's get some. Hold on, it's pretty expensive, well, then we'll postpone the purchase and wait a bit longer. Hmm, I thought we needed more Chinooks now?
We needed more Hercules planes, the C-130J was deemed too expensive and would come too late... now we're waiting for some ancient desert airframes to be overhauled and upgraded by a UK company... by the time they're done, the existing H models also need an upgrade (and probably overhaul)... we might as well have bought the C-130J, and swap in our H models for J models as well.
Just my two cents...
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